Aces vs. Sun prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [5/13/2026]

The Connecticut Sun will square off with the favored Las Vegas Aces in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Wednesday, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Sun game.

The Sun, with stars like Aneesah Morrow, Diamond Miller and Kennedy Burke, will face off against the Aces, whose lineup includes A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Aces vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Aces an 89% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+14.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 60% chance of staying under.

Aces vs. Sun odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Sun
Spread	-14.5 (-108)	+14.5 (-106)
Moneyline	-1100	+730
Total	o172.5 (-108)	u172.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aces vs. Sun picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sun +14.5	-106
Moneyline	Sun	+730
Total	Under 172.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 172.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Aces vs. Sun player props

Betting on Aces vs. Sun WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 25 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Aneesah Morrow is projected to have 13 points, 13 rebounds and 1 assists for the Sun.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	25	9	3	1	51
Jackie Young	17	5	6	2	36
Chennedy Carter	13	3	2	0	23
Jewell Loyd	10	3	2	2	21
Chelsea Gray	10	4	6	1	30

Sun prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Aneesah Morrow	13	13	1	1	35
Diamond Miller	11	4	2	1	23
Kennedy Burke	11	3	2	2	23
O. Nelson-Ododa	9	6	1	0	22
Saniya Rivers	8	2	2	1	20

Aces vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's action between the Sun and Aces at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
• Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.