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Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Siegemund vs Paolini predictions for WTA Madrid Open.
Laura Siegemund will face Jasmine Paolini in the round of 64 at the WTA Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Jasmine Paolini as the most likely winner of the Siegemund vs. Paolini match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Siegemund vs. Paolini prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Siegemund-Paolini women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Paolini a 74% chance of defeating Siegemund at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Paolini has a 70% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paolini (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 20.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Siegemund | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +280 | -315 |
| First Set | +200 | -250 |
| Game Spread | +4.5 (-106) | -4.5 (-128) |
| Total Games | o20.5 (-105) | u20.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Siegemund vs. Paolini picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Siegemund | +280 |
| First Set | Paolini | -125 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Laura Siegemund to win.
Although Siegemund is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Siegemund vs. Paolini updates and essential details
The WTA Madrid Open match between Laura Siegemund and Jasmine Paolini is scheduled to start on Thursday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Madrid, Spain Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Jasmine Paolini, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Laura Siegemund at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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