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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Francisco Cerundolo prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Musetti vs Cerundolo predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Lorenzo Musetti will take on Francisco Cerundolo in the round of 32 at the ATP Rome event on Sunday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Lorenzo Musetti as the most likely winner of the Musetti vs. Cerundolo match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Musetti vs. Cerundolo prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Musetti-Cerundolo men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Musetti a 51% chance of beating Cerundolo at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Musetti has a 51% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the +0.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the **over/under of 22.5 games also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Francisco Cerundolo odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Musetti | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -105 | +100 |
| First Set | -125 | +100 |
| Game Spread | -0.5 (-112) | +0.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Musetti vs. Cerundolo picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cerundolo | +100 |
| First Set | Cerundolo | -110 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Francisco Cerundolo to win.
Although Cerundolo is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Musetti vs. Cerundolo updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Lorenzo Musetti and Francisco Cerundolo is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Francisco Cerundolo
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Lorenzo Musetti, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat Francisco Cerundolo at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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