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Lorenzo Sonego vs. Andrey Rublev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Barcelona Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Sonego vs Rublev predictions for ATP Barcelona Open.
Lorenzo Sonego will square off with Andrey Rublev in the round of 16 at the ATP Barcelona event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Andrey Rublev as the most likely winner of the Sonego vs. Rublev match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sonego vs. Rublev prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Sonego-Rublev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Rublev a 77% chance of beating Sonego at the ATP Barcelona Open tournament.
Additionally, Rublev has a 72% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sonego (+4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Andrey Rublev odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sonego | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +303 | -375 |
| First Set | +240 | -303 |
| Game Spread | +4.5 (-132) | -4.5 (-102) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (+105) | u22.5 (-150) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sonego vs. Rublev picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rublev | -375 |
| First Set | Rublev | -150 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Andrey Rublev to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sonego vs. Rublev updates and essential details
The ATP Barcelona Open match between Lorenzo Sonego and Andrey Rublev is scheduled to start on Thursday at 7:30 AM ET.
- Who: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Andrey Rublev
- Date: Thursday, April 16, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:30 AM ET/4:30AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Barcelona, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 16
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Andrey Rublev, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat Lorenzo Sonego at the ATP Barcelona Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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