Matteo Berrettini vs. Joao Fonseca prediction, odds, picks for ATP Monte-Carlo Masters 2026

Matteo Berrettini will take on Joao Fonseca in the round of 16 at the ATP Monte Carlo event on Thursday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Joao Fonseca as the most likely winner of the Berrettini vs. Fonseca match.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Berrettini vs. Fonseca prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Berrettini-Fonseca men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Fonseca a 52% chance of defeating Berrettini at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.

Additionally, Fonseca has a 51% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Berrettini (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Joao Fonseca odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Berrettini vs. Fonseca picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Matteo Berrettini to win.

Although Berrettini is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Berrettini vs. Fonseca updates and essential details

The ATP Monte-Carlo Masters match between Matteo Berrettini and Joao Fonseca is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 5:00 AM ET.

• Who: Matteo Berrettini vs. Joao Fonseca
• Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Monte Carlo, Monaco Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Joao Fonseca, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Berrettini at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.