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Read Article Twins vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Friday.
The Boston Red Sox will square off with the Minnesota Twins in MLB action at Fenway Park on Friday, commencing at 7:10 PM ET.
The Red Sox will send Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.05 ERA) to the mound, while the Twins will counter with Connor Prielipp (1-2, 2.88 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the Twins vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Twins vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Twins and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Red Sox a 57% chance of defeating the Twins.
According to our model, the Twins (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of seven runs has a 60% chance of going over.
Twins vs. Red Sox odds [5/22/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Twins | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-174) | -1.5 (+155) |
| Moneyline | +129 | -148 |
| Total | o7 (-118) | u7 (+102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Twins vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +155 |
| Moneyline | Twins | +129 |
| Total | Over 7 | -118 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Twins vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Twins at Fenway Park is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Twins in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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