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Read Article Twins vs. Nationals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Washington Nationals will face the Minnesota Twins, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Nationals Park on Thursday, beginning at 1:05 PM ET.
The Nationals will send Jake Irvin (1-4, 4.93 ERA) to the mound, while the Twins have opted for Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 6.49 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Nationals a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Twins.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Twins vs. Nationals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Twins vs. Nationals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Twins and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Nationals a 52% chance of beating the Twins.
According to our model, the Twins (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Twins vs. Nationals odds [5/7/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Twins | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+164) |
| Moneyline | +106 | -124 |
| Total | o9 (-118) | u9 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Twins vs. Nationals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Nationals -1.5 | +164 |
| Moneyline | Twins | +106 |
| Total | Over 9 | -118 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Twins vs. Nationals game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Nationals and Twins at Nationals Park is scheduled to start at 1:05 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Time: 1:05 PM ET/10:05AM PT
- Venue: Nationals Park
Conclusion
We predict the Nationals, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Twins in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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