MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Diamondbacks vs. Rangers play [5/11/2026]

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 56.3%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Monday)

Our model has identified value on over 7.5 runs in Diamondbacks vs. Rangers at -104 odds. A 56.3% probability produces an edge of 5.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Rays vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 51.8%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)

Rays vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs carries a 5.3% edge and a probability of 51.8% at +115 odds, according to our model.

Yankees vs. Orioles over 9.5 runs (+130)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 48.3%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

Yankees vs. Orioles over 9.5 runs at +130 odds shows a 4.8% edge, supported by a 48.3% probability in simulations.

Mariners vs. Astros over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 51.3%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Monday)

A 3.3% edge and 51.3% probability make Mariners vs. Astros over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Mariners vs. Astros matchup, per our model.

Orioles +1.5 (+100)

• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 52.8%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

Orioles +1.5 at +100 odds presents a 2.8% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 52.8%.

Orioles ML (+157)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 41.4%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

Our model finds value on Orioles to win at +157 odds, supported by an edge of 2.5%.

MLB best bets summary: Monday, 5/11/2026

As of 7:39AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers	Over 7.5 Runs	-104 @ kalshi	5.3%	56.3%
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Over 7.5 Runs	+115 @ polymarket	5.3%	51.8%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Over 9.5 Runs	+130 @ polymarket	4.8%	48.3%
Mariners vs. Astros	Over 8.5 Runs	+108 @ kalshi	3.3%	51.3%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Orioles +1.5	+100 @ kalshi	2.8%	52.8%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Orioles ML	+157 @ novig	2.5%	41.4%

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/11/2026]

• Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)
• Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)
• D-Backs vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Monday)
• Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Monday)
• Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 11, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Rangers matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Rays vs. Blue Jays matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.