Home run predictions for Friday include Byron Buxton, Nick Kurtz [6/26/2026]

Our analysis shows Buxton leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.2% chance to go yard, followed by Pete Alonso (22.2%) and Shohei Ohtani (20.3%).

Nick Kurtz and Tyler O'Neill are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [6/26/2026]

Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.

Taylor Ward (Orioles) to hit a home run

• Probability: 17.2%
• Odds: +680
• Edge: 4.4%
• Game: Nationals vs. Orioles (7:05 PM EDT)
• Pitching matchup: Andrew Alvarez

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Baltimore slugger Taylor Ward rates as a value play at +680 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 4.4% edge.

With Andrew Alvarez on the mound for the Nationals, the data supports Ward as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of eight home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For June 26, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Byron Buxton, Pete Alonso and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Taylor Ward who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.4% edge at +680 odds.

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