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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +520 pick for Monday [5/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Monday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, May 4, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Monday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for May 4, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +520.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 24.3% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 23.0% |
| Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) | 21.5% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 20.8% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) | 20.7% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 19.5% |
| Alex Bregman (Cubs) | 18.2% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 18.2% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 18.1% |
| Mike Trout (Angels) | 17.8% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.3% chance to go yard, followed by Michael Busch (23.0%) and Seiya Suzuki (21.5%).
Jo Adell and Pete Crow-Armstrong are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Monday's home run picks [5/4/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Jo Adell (Angels) to hit a home run
- Probability: 20.8%
- Odds: +520
- Edge: 4.7%
- Game: White Sox vs. Angels (9:38 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Davis Martin
Ranked among today’s top five home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Jo Adell rates as a value play at +520 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 4.7% edge.
With Davis Martin on the mound for the White Sox, the data supports Adell as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 4, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jo Adell who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.7% edge at +520 odds.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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