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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Monday has +524 odds [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Monday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, May 11, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Monday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, built to highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 11, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +524.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 25.3% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 25.2% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 19.4% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 19.0% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 18.4% |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 18.2% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 17.9% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 17.8% |
| Spencer Jones (Yankees) | 17.6% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.4% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.3% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (25.2%) and Ben Rice (19.4%).
Kyle Tucker and Jazz Chisholm are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Monday's home run picks [5/11/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 19%
- Odds: +524
- Edge: 3.0%
- Game: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Trevor McDonald
Ranked among today’s top five home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +524 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.0% edge.
Against Giants starter Trevor McDonald, the data supports Tucker as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 11, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Kyle Tucker who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.0% edge at +524 odds.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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