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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Saturday has +1040 odds [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, April 11, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run bets today, also utilized in our home run parlay today.
Home run predictions for April 11, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1040.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 23.3% |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | 21.0% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 20.8% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 20.8% |
| Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) | 18.8% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 18.6% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 18.6% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.6% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 17.6% |
| Fernando Tatis (Padres) | 17.2% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.3% chance to go yard, followed by Eugenio Suarez (21.0%) and Aaron Judge (20.8%).
Kyle Schwarber and Giancarlo Stanton are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [4/11/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro identifies today’s top home run prop.
Samuel Basallo (Orioles) to hit a home run
- Probability: 12.6%
- Odds: +1040
- Edge: 3.8%
- Game: Giants vs. Orioles (7:15 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Logan Webb
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Baltimore slugger Samuel Basallo rates as a value play at +1040 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.8% edge.
With Logan Webb on the mound for the Giants, the data supports Basallo as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 11, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Eugenio Suarez and Aaron Judge projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Samuel Basallo who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.8% edge at +1040 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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