Home run predictions for Saturday include Nick Kurtz, Kyle Schwarber [7/4/2026]

Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.8% chance to go deep, followed by Eugenio Suárez (22.9%) and Shea Langeliers (22.0%).

Rafael Devers and Kyle Schwarber are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Saturday's home run picks [7/4/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 18.1%
• Odds: +600
• Edge: 3.8%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Cubs (8:08 PM EDT)
• Pitching matchup: Kyle Leahy

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Michael Busch rates as a value play at +600 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.8% edge.

Set to face Kyle Leahy in tonight's Cardinals-Cubs matchup, the data supports Busch as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 13 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For July 4, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Eugenio Suárez and Shea Langeliers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.8% edge at +600 odds.

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