Jul 7, 2026
Rockies vs. Dodgers prediction: Dodgers favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [7/7/2026]
Read Article Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +670 pick for Sunday [7/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Sunday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Sunday, July 5, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Sunday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, built to highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for July 5, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +670.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 26.3% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 23.7% |
| Rafael Devers (Giants) | 22.4% |
| Hunter Goodman (Rockies) | 21.0% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 19.6% |
| Eugenio Suárez (Reds) | 19.4% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 19.2% |
| Bryce Eldridge (Giants) | 19.1% |
| Willy Adames (Giants) | 19.0% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 18.9% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.3% chance to go deep, followed by Nick Kurtz (23.7%) and Rafael Devers (22.4%).
Hunter Goodman and Kyle Tucker are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Sunday's home run picks [7/5/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16.7%
- Odds: +670
- Edge: 3.7%
- Game: Cardinals vs. Cubs (2:30 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Matthew Liberatore
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Michael Busch rates as a value play at +670 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.7% edge.
Against Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, the data supports Busch as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 11 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 5, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Nick Kurtz and Rafael Devers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.7% edge at +670 odds.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure
