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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +950 pick for Thursday [4/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, April 9, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for April 9, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +950.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 24.5% |
| Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) | 22.3% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 18.9% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 18.0% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 16.8% |
| Austin Wells (Yankees) | 16.2% |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | 16.0% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 15.5% |
| Cody Bellinger (Yankees) | 15.2% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 14.6% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.5% chance to go yard, followed by Giancarlo Stanton (22.3%) and Ben Rice (18.9%).
Jazz Chisholm and Nick Kurtz are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [4/9/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) to hit a home run
- Probability: 12.9%
- Odds: +950
- Edge: 3.4%
- Game: Athletics vs. Yankees (1:35 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Ryan Weathers
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, slugger Tyler Soderstrom rates as a value play at +950 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.4% edge.
Set to face Ryan Weathers in tonight's Athletics-Yankees matchup, the data supports Soderstrom as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 9, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Tyler Soderstrom who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.4% edge at +950 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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