MLB Home Run Props: Tracking MLB's unluckiest hitters in the early season

Home run betting is a game of numbers, and the numbers underneath the numbers. A player with 0 home runs on the season doesn't necessarily indicate a poor player or even one who is struggling. Home run props require as much luck in sports betting as anything else.

A well-hit ball could hit a gust of wind, run into a park factor preventing it from leaving the yard when it would have in 29 other parks (looking at you, Green Monster) or leave the bat at just the wrong angle.

With home runs down to decade-low numbers in the early weeks, bettors are eager to see the dingers start flying. While this is happening league-wide, some players are always more affected than others, so we've crafted this list of some of the unluckiest home run hitters so far this season, and how we project them today, utilizing the home run projections found in the Dimers App.

Whether you're placing home run prop bets or just lining up your ideal hitters, these insights should help guide you through the early-season waters.

Unlucky home run hitters in 2026 MLB season

For a variety of reasons, the hitters below have yet to fulfill their home run potential early on, but their analytics reveal players making good contact and falling victim to circumstance.

Looking for outlooks on other players who haven't quite delivered ideal early-season results? Dimers' MLB Projections Hub offers detailed looks at every single hitter for every game.

Today's top home run hitters in the Dimer App - tap for a 3-day free trial!

1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves)

The standout case by a wide margin.

He leads everyone with 2.5 expected HR and zero actual home runs, with 4 balls that would be "mostly gone" in 8–29 parks per MLB's statcast. He'd have as many as 5 HR in friendlier venues like Camden Yards, Comerica Park, or Citizens Bank. His 8.6 Barrels/PA (48th) confirms he's hitting the ball hard, but it's purely bad luck and park context working against him.

Acuna has two 41-HR seasons under his belt and should find his hot bat soon. He gets a 16.1% probability to go yard tonight vs. the Guardians and starter Slade Cecconi.

2. Luis Arraez (Giants)

Arraez having any xHR discussion is remarkable given he's a slap hitter by nature. But, at 1.4 xHR with 2 balls "mostly gone" and still zero home runs, the numbers suggest he's been genuinely robbed after his switch from the more hitter-friendly confines of Petco Park to Oracle Park.

He'll be in one of the more HR-friendly parks tonight with a low 3.6% probability to go yard.

3. Fernando Tatis Jr (Padres)

His 8.5 Barrels/PA (50th) shows elite contact quality, but he's been hurt by playing in the two worst HR parks, PNC Park and Fenway Park (where his best hit ball would have been a HR in more than half of all other stadiums.

Tatis will get his best chance yet as he goes from some of the worst parks to one of the best, continuing a homestand in Petco Park on Friday, with a 19.0% HR probability, a top-five mark on the slate.

4. Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals)

A brutal situation. Witt Jr. isn't getting fly balls yet, but his best-hit ball would've gone out in 11 other parks, unfortunately it was struck right in Kauffman Stadium, historically the worst park for Witt Jr's home runs over the past two years, with adjusted numbers costing him roughly 6 HR. His 8.8 Barrels/PA (45th) shows a good combination of velocity and launch angle that should result in home runs sooner than later.

He'll be battling his home park with a 12.1% probability to hit a home run off the White Sox's best starter so far, Davis Martin.

5. Riley Greene (Tigers)

His 8.7 Barrels/PA (46th) ranks Greene among the hardest hitters with zero HR. Four doubles all mashed to right-center suggest he's consistently squaring balls up, just not quite with enough lift or carry to clear the fence.

The Dimers model gives him a 13.9% home run probability tonight when the Tigers face Chris Paddack of the Marlins after he allowed 31 HR last season and 2 so far this year.

Final Word

Bad luck doesn't last forever, and in baseball, underlying metrics almost always catch up with surface stats.

If you're looking to leverage data like what we've showcased above, Dimers Pro gives you access to daily projections, predictive models, and sharp betting insights, with a three-day free trial now available in the Dimers App.

Whether it's finding the best odds, placing smarter props, or getting an edge during streaks like these, Dimers Pro is your ultimate tool for the 2026 MLB season.

Dimers' 2026 MLB Season Betting Resources

• MLB Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• MLB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best MLB Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• MLB Futures Odds: Who will win the World Series?
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