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Read Article Home run predictions for Dinger Tuesday include Aaron Judge, Juan Soto [5/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for May 5, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +740.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 22.6% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 20.2% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 19.9% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 19.8% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 19.2% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 18.7% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 18.1% |
| Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) | 18.0% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.6% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 17.4% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.6% chance to go yard, followed by Jo Adell (20.2%) and Kyle Schwarber (19.9%).
Juan Soto and Michael Busch are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [5/5/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run
- Probability: 19.3%
- Odds: +740
- Edge: 7.4%
- Game: Reds vs. Cubs (7:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Andrew Abbott
Ranked among today’s top five home run projections, Chicago slugger Michael Busch rates as a value play at +740 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 7.4% edge.
Set to face Andrew Abbott in tonight's Reds-Cubs matchup, the data supports Busch as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a weekly tradition where bettors focus on home run value plays across the slate.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to a total of 18 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 5, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Jo Adell and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 7.4% edge at +740 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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