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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +600 pick for Wednesday [4/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Wednesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, April 29, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Wednesday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for April 29, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +600.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 22.6% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.4% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 21.0% |
| Rece Hinds (Reds) | 20.7% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 20.4% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 19.6% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 19.5% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 19.5% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 18.4% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 18.1% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.6% chance to go yard, followed by Shohei Ohtani (22.4%) and Shea Langeliers (21.0%).
Rece Hinds and Juan Soto are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Wednesday's home run picks [4/29/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Francisco Alvarez (Mets) to hit a home run
- Probability: 18.4%
- Odds: +600
- Edge: 4.1%
- Game: Nationals vs. Mets (7:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Cade Cavalli
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Francisco Alvarez rates as a value play at +600 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 4.1% edge.
With Cade Cavalli on the mound for the Nationals, the data supports Alvarez as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 11 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 29, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Shohei Ohtani and Shea Langeliers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Francisco Alvarez who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.1% edge at +600 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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