MLB player props today: Monday's best props include Kevin Gausman [5/11/2026]

Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts (-144)

• Edge: 6.8%
• Probability: 65.8%
• Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Our model has found value on Toronto's Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts. A probability of 65.8% gives this play an edge of 6.8% at -144 odds.

Austin Wells to get a hit (-137)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 60.7%
• Game: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Austin Wells’s to get a hit prop shows a 60.7% probability and an 2.9% edge at -137 odds, according to our model.

Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts (-112)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 59.1%
• Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

The data highlights value on Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 59.1% probability and a 6.3% edge at -112.

George Kirby under 5.5 hits allowed (-108)

• Edge: 6.8%
• Probability: 58.7%
• Game: Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on George Kirby under 5.5 hits allowed, with a 58.7% probability and an edge of 6.8% at -108 odds.

Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases (+100)

• Edge: 8.0%
• Probability: 58.0%
• Game: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases for NY Yankees, showing an edge of 8.0% at +100 odds.

Roki Sasaki over 15.5 outs recorded (+106)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 57.6%
• Game: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Roki Sasaki’s outs recorded prop shows an edge of 9.1% at +106 odds, supported by a 57.6% probability according to our model.

George Kirby under 17.5 outs recorded (+123)

• Edge: 9.6%
• Probability: 54.5%
• Game: Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on George Kirby under 17.5 outs recorded for Seattle, with a 54.5% probability and a 9.6% edge at +123 odds.

Cody Bellinger over 1.5 bases (+110)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 51.4%
• Game: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

The data shows value on Cody Bellinger over 1.5 bases, supported by a 51.4% probability at +110 odds and an edge of 3.8%.

Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases (+135)

• Edge: 8.8%
• Probability: 51.4%
• Game: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

An 8.8% edge on the over 1.5 bases line makes Teoscar Hernandez a value play in Giants vs. Dodgers, supported by a 51.4% probability at +135 odds.

Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases (+135)

• Edge: 8.5%
• Probability: 51.1%
• Game: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases here, with a 51.1% probability and 8.5% edge at +135 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Monday, May 11, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 7:51AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts	-144 @ FanDuel	6.8%	65.8%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Austin Wells to get a hit	-137 @ BetRivers	2.9%	60.7%
Rays vs. Blue Jays	Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts	-112 @ DraftKings	6.8%	58.7%
Mariners vs. Astros	George Kirby under 5.5 hits allowed	-108 @ DraftKings	6.8%	58.7%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases	+100 @ Fanatics	8.0%	58.0%
Giants vs. Dodgers	Roki Sasaki over 15.5 outs recorded	+106 @ DraftKings	9.1%	57.6%
Mariners vs. Astros	George Kirby under 17.5 outs recorded	+123 @ DraftKings	9.6%	54.5%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Cody Bellinger over 1.5 bases	+110 @ BetRivers	3.8%	51.4%
Giants vs. Dodgers	Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases	+135 @ Fanatics	8.8%	51.4%
Giants vs. Dodgers	Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases	+135 @ Fanatics	8.5%	51.1%

Conclusion

For May 11, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Kevin Gausman, Austin Wells and Drew Rasmussen. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.