Jul 4, 2026
Twins vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [7/4/2026]
Read Article MLB player props today: Independence Day best props include Jesús Luzardo [7/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB player props today with projections for Saturday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for Independence Day, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Jesús Luzardo, Yainer Diaz and Aaron Civale.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Marlins vs. Athletics and Mets vs. Braves, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Saturday, 7/4
Sourced from 90+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 4, ranked by probability.
Jesús Luzardo under 6.5 strikeouts (-139)
- Edge: 6.6%
- Probability: 64.7%
- Game: Phillies vs. Royals (8:10PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on Philadelphia's Jesús Luzardo under 6.5 strikeouts. A probability of 64.7% gives this play an edge of 6.6% at -139 odds.
Yainer Diaz over 0.5 bases (-160)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Rays vs. Astros (7:10PM ET)
Yainer Diaz’s bases prop shows a 63.9% probability and an 2.4% edge at -160 odds, according to our model.
Yainer Diaz to get a hit (-146)
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Rays vs. Astros (7:10PM ET)
The data highlights value on Yainer Diaz to get a hit, with simulations showing a 63.9% probability and a 4.6% edge at -146.
Aaron Civale over 3.5 strikeouts (-135)
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 63.0%
- Game: Marlins vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)
Our model finds value on Aaron Civale over 3.5 strikeouts, with a 63.0% probability and an edge of 5.5% at -135 odds.
Zebby Matthews under 5.5 strikeouts (-148)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 62.6%
- Game: Twins vs. Yankees (1:35PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Zebby Matthews under 5.5 strikeouts for Minnesota, showing an edge of 2.9% at -148 odds.
Sandy Alcantara over 6.5 hits allowed (-142)
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 61.3%
- Game: Marlins vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)
Sandy Alcantara’s hits allowed prop shows an edge of 2.6% at -142 odds, supported by a 61.3% probability according to our model.
Zebby Matthews under 16.5 outs recorded (-127)
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 61.3%
- Game: Twins vs. Yankees (1:35PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Zebby Matthews under 16.5 outs recorded for Minnesota, with a 61.3% probability and a 5.3% edge at -127 odds.
Chris Sale under 7.5 strikeouts (-110)
- Edge: 8.1%
- Probability: 60.5%
- Game: Mets vs. Braves (8:08PM ET)
The data shows value on Chris Sale under 7.5 strikeouts, supported by a 60.5% probability at -110 odds and an edge of 8.1%.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 6.5 strikeouts (-135)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 60.4%
- Game: Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
A 2.9% edge on the under 7.5 strikeouts line makes Yoshinobu Yamamoto a value play in Padres vs. Dodgers, supported by a 60.4% probability at -135 odds.
Drew Rasmussen under 1.5 walks allowed (-124)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 59.5%
- Game: Rays vs. Astros (7:10PM ET)
Simulations show value on Drew Rasmussen under 1.5 walks allowed here, with a 59.5% probability and 4.2% edge at -124 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Saturday, July 4, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 10:58AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies vs. Royals | Jesús Luzardo under 6.5 strikeouts | -139 @ BetRivers | 6.6% | 64.7% |
| Rays vs. Astros | Yainer Diaz over 0.5 bases | -160 @ Fanatics | 2.4% | 63.9% |
| Rays vs. Astros | Yainer Diaz to get a hit | -146 @ DraftKings | 5.5% | 63.0% |
| Marlins vs. Athletics | Aaron Civale over 3.5 strikeouts | -135 @ BetMGM | 5.5% | 63.0% |
| Twins vs. Yankees | Zebby Matthews under 5.5 strikeouts | -148 @ BetRivers | 2.9% | 62.6% |
| Marlins vs. Athletics | Sandy Alcantara over 6.5 hits allowed | -142 @ DraftKings | 2.6% | 61.3% |
| Twins vs. Yankees | Zebby Matthews under 16.5 outs recorded | -127 @ DraftKings | 5.3% | 61.3% |
| Mets vs. Braves | Chris Sale under 7.5 strikeouts | -110 @ BetMGM | 8.1% | 60.5% |
| Padres vs. Dodgers | Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 6.5 strikeouts | -135 @ DraftKings | 2.9% | 60.4% |
| Rays vs. Astros | Drew Rasmussen under 1.5 walks allowed | -124 @ DraftKings | 4.2% | 59.5% |
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Conclusion
For July 4, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Jesús Luzardo, Yainer Diaz and Aaron Civale. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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