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Read Article Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction: Buffalo favored to win Game 5 [2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Buffalo Sabres will square off with the Montreal Canadiens in the 2026 NHL Playoffs at KeyBank Center on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Sabres a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Canadiens Game 5 matchup.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Canadiens vs. Sabres matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Sabres prediction: Who will win Game 5?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Canadiens and Sabres, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Sabres a 53% chance of beating the Canadiens in Game 5 of the series.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of staying under.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 5 odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-250) | -1.5 (+205) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -115 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Sabres picks and best bet for Game 5
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Sabres -1.5 | +205 |
| Moneyline | Sabres | -115 |
| Total | Under 6 | -115 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Sabres to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Canadiens vs. Sabres player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Sabres?
According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Sabres.
Our projections give Thompson a 41.0% chance of scoring a goal at KeyBank Center, while the star is a 7.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 35.7% |
| Alex Newhook | 29.8% |
| Nick Suzuki | 29.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 25.8% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 24.7% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 41.0% |
| Alex Tuch | 32.8% |
| Zach Benson | 29.1% |
| Josh Norris | 26.1% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 21.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 6.9% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.7% |
| Alex Newhook | 5.6% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.5% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.2% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 7.8% |
| Alex Tuch | 6.7% |
| Zach Benson | 6.0% |
| Josh Norris | 4.8% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 3.5% |
Habs vs. Sabres Game 5 updates and essential details
Thursday's Game 5 between the Sabres and Canadiens in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: KeyBank Center
The Stanley Cup Playoffs is the NHL's annual elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.
Sixteen teams, including the Canadiens and Sabres, made the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Sabres, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Thursday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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