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Canadiens vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [3/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators predictions for NHL Wednesday.
The Ottawa Senators will face the Montreal Canadiens in NHL action at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Senators as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Senators game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Canadiens and Senators 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Senators a 59% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under.
Canadiens vs. Senators odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-144) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Moneyline | +176 | -190 |
| Total | o6.5 (-102) | u6.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Senators picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Canadiens +1.5 | -144 |
| Moneyline | Canadiens | +176 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -108 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Canadiens to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Canadiens vs. Senators player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Senators?
According to our model, Brady Tkachuk is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Senators.
Our projections give Tkachuk a 36.1% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 7.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 31.1% |
| Ivan Demidov | 27.5% |
| Alex Newhook | 26.2% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 23.9% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 20.9% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 36.1% |
| Tim Stutzle | 33.7% |
| Dylan Cozens | 28.0% |
| Drake Batherson | 27.5% |
| Shane Pinto | 26.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 5.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 5.3% |
| Alex Newhook | 5.0% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.4% |
| Zachary Bolduc | 3.4% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 7.0% |
| Tim Stutzle | 6.8% |
| Dylan Cozens | 5.3% |
| Shane Pinto | 4.9% |
| Drake Batherson | 4.5% |
Habs vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Senators and Canadiens at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators
- Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Wednesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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