Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/31/2026]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Montreal Canadiens in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Tuesday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Habs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL matchup between the Canadiens and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 60% chance of beating the Canadiens.

According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under.

Canadiens vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canadiens	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-152)	-1.5 (+142)
Moneyline	+146	-170
Total	o6.5 (-102)	u6.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canadiens vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Canadiens +1.5	-152
Moneyline	Canadiens	+146
Total	Under 6.5	-115

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Canadiens +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Canadiens vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Kucherov a 40.1% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 7.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	39.4%
Nick Suzuki	28.0%
Ivan Demidov	26.1%
Juraj Slafkovsky	23.5%
Oliver Kapanen	23.1%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nikita Kucherov	40.1%
Brayden Point	38.6%
Jake Guentzel	38.5%
Brandon Hagel	34.9%
Anthony Cirelli	25.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	6.8%
Nick Suzuki	5.1%
Ivan Demidov	4.9%
Alex Newhook	4.0%
Juraj Slafkovsky	3.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	7.9%
Nikita Kucherov	7.4%
Brayden Point	7.1%
Brandon Hagel	6.4%
Anthony Cirelli	4.7%

Habs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Lightning and Canadiens at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Tuesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.

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