Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [4/29/2026]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Montreal Canadiens in the 2026 NHL Playoffs at Benchmark International Arena on Wednesday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Habs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL Playoffs game between the Canadiens and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 59% chance of defeating the Canadiens.

According to our model, the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 54% chance of going over.

Canadiens vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canadiens	Lightning
Moneyline	+135	-155
Total	o5.5 (-120)	u5.5 (+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canadiens vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Canadiens	+135
Total	Over 5.5	-120

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Canadiens vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 42.1% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	37.6%
Nick Suzuki	26.9%
Ivan Demidov	26.3%
Juraj Slafkovsky	23.7%
Alex Newhook	22.2%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	42.1%
Nikita Kucherov	39.8%
Brandon Hagel	37.6%
Brayden Point	32.4%
Anthony Cirelli	23.7%

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	7.5%
Juraj Slafkovsky	4.8%
Nick Suzuki	4.7%
Ivan Demidov	4.5%
Alex Newhook	4.3%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	8.8%
Nikita Kucherov	8.4%
Brandon Hagel	7.2%
Brayden Point	6.0%
Anthony Cirelli	4.5%

Habs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's action between the Lightning and Canadiens in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Wednesday, April 29, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

The Stanley Cup Playoffs is the NHL's annual elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

A total of 16 teams, including the Canadiens and Lightning, reached the NHL Playoffs 2026, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the NHL Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Wednesday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.