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NBA Playoffs player props today: Thursday's best props include Donovan Mitchell [4/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get NBA player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' NBA props are live for April 23, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Scottie Barnes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Our NBA player props model runs continuously, analyzing every Playoffs matchup, including Knicks vs. Hawks and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves, to surface the best NBA player prop bets across the market.
List of NBA prop picks for Thursday's playoffs, 4/23
Below are the top ten NBA player props for April 23, ranked by probability.
Donovan Mitchell over 4.5 assists (+108)
- Edge: 6.0%
- Probability: 54.0%
- Projection: 5.2
- Game: Cavaliers vs. Raptors (8:00PM ET)
Our model has found value on Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell over 4.5 assists. A probability of 54.0% gives this play an edge of 6.0% at +108 odds.
Scottie Barnes over 1.5 blocks (+140)
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 48.3%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Cavaliers vs. Raptors (8:00PM ET)
Scottie Barnes’s blocks prop shows a 6.7% edge at +140 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.3 blocks on the over 1.5 line.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 1.5 steals (+145)
- Edge: 6.0%
- Probability: 46.8%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Knicks vs. Hawks (7:00PM ET)
The data highlights value on Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 46.8% probability and a 6.0% edge at +145.
Josh Hart over 1.5 steals (+180)
- Edge: 9.3%
- Probability: 45.1%
- Projection: 1.1
- Game: Knicks vs. Hawks (7:00PM ET)
Our model projects Josh Hart to record 1.1 steals today, creating an edge of 9.3% on the over 1.5 line at +180 odds.
CJ McCollum under 0.5 steals (+171)
- Edge: 6.8%
- Probability: 43.7%
- Projection: 1.0
- Game: Knicks vs. Hawks (7:00PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on CJ McCollum under 0.5 steals for Atlanta, showing an edge of 6.8% at +171 odds.
Jalen Johnson under 0.5 steals (+176)
- Edge: 7.5%
- Probability: 43.7%
- Projection: 1.0
- Game: Knicks vs. Hawks (7:00PM ET)
Jalen Johnson’s steals prop shows an edge of 7.5% at +176 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.0 today.
CJ McCollum to score first basket (+650)
- Edge: 0.1%
- Probability: 13.5%
- Game: Knicks vs. Hawks (7:00PM ET)
Our model highlights value on CJ McCollum to score first basket for Atlanta, with a 13.5% probability and a 0.1% edge at +650 odds.
RJ Barrett to score first basket (+950)
- Edge: 2.5%
- Probability: 12.0%
- Game: Cavaliers vs. Raptors (8:00PM ET)
The data shows value on RJ Barrett to score first basket, supported by a 12.0% probability at +950 odds and an edge of 2.5%.
Jaden McDaniels to score first basket (+1000)
- Edge: 2.3%
- Probability: 11.4%
- Game: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves (9:30PM ET)
A 2.3% edge on the to score first basket line makes Jaden McDaniels a value play in Nuggets vs. Timberwolves, supported by a 11.4% probability at +1000 odds.
Jalen Johnson to score first basket (+850)
- Edge: 0.4%
- Probability: 10.9%
- Game: Knicks vs. Hawks (7:00PM ET)
Simulations show value on Jalen Johnson to score first basket here, with a 10.9% probability and 0.4% edge at +850 odds.
NBA player prop summary: Thursday, April 23, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 4:11AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Donovan Mitchell over 4.5 assists | +108 @ FanDuel | 6.0% | 54.0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Scottie Barnes over 1.5 blocks | +140 @ BetMGM | 6.7% | 48.3% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 1.5 steals | +145 @ DraftKings | 9.3% | 45.1% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Josh Hart over 1.5 steals | +180 @ DraftKings | 9.3% | 45.1% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | CJ McCollum under 0.5 steals | +171 @ DraftKings | 6.8% | 43.7% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Jalen Johnson under 0.5 steals | +176 @ DraftKings | 7.5% | 43.7% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | CJ McCollum to score first basket | +650 @ FanDuel | 0.1% | 13.5% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | RJ Barrett to score first basket | +950 @ FanDuel | 2.5% | 12.0% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Jaden McDaniels to score first basket | +1000 @ FanDuel | 2.3% | 11.4% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Jalen Johnson to score first basket | +850 @ FanDuel | 0.4% | 10.9% |
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Conclusion
For April 23, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Donovan Mitchell, Scottie Barnes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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