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Liberty vs. Fire prediction: Why New York is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [5/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get New York Liberty vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Tuesday.
The Portland Fire will take on the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Moda Center on Tuesday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Fire game.
The Fire, with star players such as Carla Leite, Emily Engstler and Luisa Geiselsoder, are set to take on the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Han Xu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Liberty an 85% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Fire (+12.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 174.5-point over/under has a 62% chance of staying under.
Liberty vs. Fire odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -12.5 (-115) | +12.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -900 | +625 |
| Total | o174.5 (-110) | u174.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fire +12.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Fire | +625 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Fire player props
WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the New York vs. Portland game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 21 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 12 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fire.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 44 |
| Han Xu | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 26 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Marine Johannes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 26 |
| Pauline Astier | 10 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 25 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Emily Engstler | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| L. Geiselsoder | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| B. Carleton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
Liberty vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's action between the Fire and Liberty at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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