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Read Article Mets vs. Marlins prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Miami Marlins predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Miami Marlins will square off with the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at loanDepot park on Sunday, starting at 1:40 PM ET.
The Marlins will start Tyler Phillips (0-0, 1.20 ERA), while the Mets have opted for Christian Scott (0-0, 4.12 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Marlins a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Mets vs. Marlins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Marlins a 54% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 56% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Marlins odds [5/24/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-199) | -1.5 (+172) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total | o7.5 (-114) | u7.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Marlins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Marlins -1.5 | +172 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +110 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -114 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Marlins and Mets at loanDepot park is scheduled to commence at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Marlins, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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