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Read Article St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Newcastle Knights prediction: Knights favored to win Saturday's NRL Round 10 matchup [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights predictions for NRL Saturday.
The St George Illawarra Dragons and Newcastle Knights will meet in the National Rugby League (NRL) at WIN Stadium on Saturday, starting at 1:00 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NRL model predicts the Knights as the most likely winner of the Knights vs. Dragons game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Dragons vs. Knights prediction: Who will win Round 10 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NRL matchup between the Knights and Dragons, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Knights a 74% chance of defeating the Dragons.
According to our model, the Knights (-9.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 53.5 points has a 61% chance of staying under.
Knights vs. St George odds
We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Knights | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -303 | +230 |
| Line (Spread) | -9.5 (-115) | +9.5 (-110) |
| Total | o53.5 (-112) | u53.5 (-114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Knights vs. Dragons picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dragons +9.5 | bet_rivers_in-110 |
| Moneyline | Knights | bet_rivers_in-303 |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -114 |
According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 53.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Dragons vs. Knights game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rugby league action between the Dragons and Knights at WIN Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 AM ET.
- Who: Newcastle Knights vs. St George Illawarra Dragons
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 1:00 AM ET/10:00PM PT
- Venue: WIN Stadium
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Knights, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Dragons in Saturday's NRL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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