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Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Budkov Kjaer vs Shapovalov predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Denis Shapovalov are scheduled to meet in the round of 64 of the ATP Madrid Open event on Saturday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Denis Shapovalov as the most likely winner of the Budkov Kjaer vs. Shapovalov match.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Budkov Kjaer vs. Shapovalov prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Budkov Kjaer-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Shapovalov a 59% chance of winning against Budkov Kjaer at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Shapovalov has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Budkov Kjaer (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Denis Shapovalov odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Budkov Kjaer | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +140 | -164 |
| First Set | +120 | -152 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-118) | -2.5 (-112) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Budkov Kjaer vs. Shapovalov picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Budkov Kjaer | +140 |
| First Set | Shapovalov | -120 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win.
Although Budkov Kjaer is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Budkov Kjaer vs. Shapovalov updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Denis Shapovalov
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Approx. Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Denis Shapovalov, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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