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Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Reilly Opelka prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Get Budkov Kjaer vs Opelka predictions for ATP Madrid Open.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer will square off with Reilly Opelka in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Reilly Opelka as the most likely winner of the Budkov Kjaer vs. Opelka match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Budkov Kjaer vs. Opelka prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Budkov Kjaer-Opelka men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Opelka a 53% chance of defeating Budkov Kjaer at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Opelka has a 51% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -0.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 25.5 games has a 62% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Reilly Opelka odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Budkov Kjaer | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -120 |
| First Set | -111 | -111 |
| Game Spread | +0.5 (-112) | -0.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o25.5 (-110) | u25.5 (-135) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Budkov Kjaer vs. Opelka picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Budkov Kjaer | +105 |
| First Set | Opelka | -135 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Budkov Kjaer vs. Opelka updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Reilly Opelka is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 4:00 AM ET.
- Who: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Reilly Opelka
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 4:00 AM ET/1:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Reilly Opelka, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
