Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Islanders are favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/17/2026]

The Toronto Maple Leafs and NY Islanders will meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Islanders a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Maple Leafs.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's Islanders vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Isles vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL game between the Islanders and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Islanders a 53% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Islanders	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	-1.5 (+165)	+1.5 (-196)
Moneyline	-150	+136
Total	o6 (-110)	u6 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-196
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+136
Total	Under 6	-110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Islanders vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, William Nylander is most likely to score an anytime goal in Islanders vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Nylander a 40.3% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

NY Islanders

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Bo Horvat	36.1%
Mathew Barzal	27.4%
Anders Lee	27.2%
Simon Holmstrom	23.3%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	22.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
William Nylander	40.3%
John Tavares	36.2%
Matthew Knies	32.2%
Benoit-Olivier Groulx	31.7%
Matias Maccelli	23.6%

First goal scorer predictions

NY Islanders

Player	First Goal Probability
Bo Horvat	7.4%
Mathew Barzal	4.9%
Anders Lee	4.9%
Simon Holmstrom	4.3%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	4.1%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
William Nylander	8.9%
John Tavares	7.4%
Matthew Knies	6.4%
Benoit-Olivier Groulx	6.3%
Matias Maccelli	4.9%

Isles vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's action between the Maple Leafs and Islanders at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: NY Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Islanders, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Tuesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Islanders vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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