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Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Islanders are favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get NY Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Tuesday.
NHL action continues on Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET as the NY Islanders lock horns with the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Islanders a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Maple Leafs.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Islanders vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Isles vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL game between the Islanders and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Islanders a 52% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Islanders | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+165) | +1.5 (-188) |
| Moneyline | -150 | +130 |
| Total | o6 (-110) | u6 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -188 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +130 |
| Total | Over 6 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Islanders vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, William Nylander is most likely to score an anytime goal in Islanders vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Nylander a 40.9% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
NY Islanders
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 35.7% |
| Anders Lee | 27.8% |
| Mathew Barzal | 26.6% |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 23.1% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 22.5% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 40.9% |
| John Tavares | 36.3% |
| Matthew Knies | 33.8% |
| Benoit-Olivier Groulx | 31.9% |
| Matias Maccelli | 23.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
NY Islanders
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 7.0% |
| Anders Lee | 5.0% |
| Mathew Barzal | 4.9% |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 4.2% |
| Matthew Schaefer | 3.9% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 9.3% |
| John Tavares | 7.4% |
| Matthew Knies | 6.9% |
| Benoit-Olivier Groulx | 6.2% |
| Matias Maccelli | 4.2% |
Isles vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's game between the Maple Leafs and Islanders at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: NY Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Islanders, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Islanders vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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