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Phillies vs. Red Sox prediction: Philadelphia favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [5/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Tuesday.
The Boston Red Sox will face the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action at Fenway Park on Tuesday, beginning at 6:45 PM ET.
The Red Sox will send Jovani Morán (0-0, 2.91 ERA) to the mound, while the Phillies have opted for Zack Wheeler (1-0, 3.12 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Phillies as the most likely winner of the Phillies vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's MLB game between the Phillies and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Phillies a 56% chance of beating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 56% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Phillies vs. Red Sox odds [5/12/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+122) | +1.5 (-143) |
| Moneyline | -142 | +120 |
| Total | o8 (-115) | u8 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Phillies -1.5 | +122 |
| Moneyline | Red Sox | +120 |
| Total | Over 8 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Red Sox and Phillies at Fenway Park is scheduled to commence at 6:45 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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