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Phillies vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [5/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Wednesday.
MLB action continues on Wednesday at 6:45 PM ET as the Philadelphia Phillies square off with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox will have Sonny Gray (3-1, 3.54 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Phillies are going with Andrew Painter (1-4, 6.89 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the Phillies vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Phillies and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Red Sox a 56% chance of defeating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has a 53% chance of going over.
Phillies vs. Red Sox odds [5/13/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+146) |
| Moneyline | +115 | -131 |
| Total | o9 (-102) | u9 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +146 |
| Moneyline | Red Sox | -131 |
| Total | Over 9 | -102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Phillies at Fenway Park is scheduled to start at 6:45 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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