Penguins vs. Bruins prediction: Tight battle projected in updated analysis for Sunday's NHL matchup [1/11/2026]

The Boston Bruins will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at TD Garden on Sunday, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Penguins-Bruins matchup.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Penguins vs. Bruins matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Penguins vs. Bruins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Penguins and Bruins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model can't split the two teams, giving both the Penguins and Bruins a 50% chance of winning the game.

According to our model, the Bruins (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.

Penguins vs. Bruins odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Penguins	Bruins
Puck Line	-1.5 (+205)	+1.5 (-235)
Moneyline	-118	+100
Total	o6.5 (+100)	u6.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Penguins vs. Bruins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Bruins +1.5	-235
Moneyline	Bruins	+100
Total	Under 6.5	-115

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bruins +1.5 at the spread.

Penguins vs. Bruins player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Bruins?

According to our model, David Pastrnak is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Bruins.

Our projections give Pastrnak a 43.9% chance of scoring a goal at TD Garden, while the star is a 9.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Sidney Crosby	35.0%
Rickard Rakell	31.9%
Evgeni Malkin	23.6%
Thomas Novak	22.3%
Anthony Mantha	20.8%

Boston Bruins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
David Pastrnak	43.9%
Morgan Geekie	35.3%
Pavel Zacha	21.8%
Fraser Minten	21.8%
Alex Steeves	21.1%

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Sidney Crosby	6.8%
Rickard Rakell	6.1%
Thomas Novak	3.9%
Evgeni Malkin	3.9%
Justin Brazeau	3.8%

Boston Bruins

Player	First Goal Probability
David Pastrnak	9.1%
Morgan Geekie	6.9%
Pavel Zacha	4.2%
Fraser Minten	3.9%
Alex Steeves	3.7%

Penguins vs. Bruins game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Bruins and Penguins at TD Garden is scheduled to start at 5:00 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Boston Bruins
• Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: TD Garden

Conclusion

We predict a close game between the Penguins and Bruins on Sunday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Bruins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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