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Penguins vs. Flyers prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Game 3 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers predictions for NHL Wednesday.
The Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins will meet in Game 3 of the NHL Playoffs at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Wednesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Flyers a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Penguins Game 3 matchup.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's Penguins vs. Flyers matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Flyers prediction: Who will win Game 3?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Penguins and Flyers, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Flyers a 52% chance of beating the Penguins in Game 3 of the series.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 57% chance of going over.
Penguins vs. Flyers Game 3 odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-250) | -1.5 (+215) |
| Moneyline | -105 | -106 |
| Total | o5.5 (+110) | u5.5 (+108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Flyers picks and best bet for Game 3
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Flyers -1.5 | +215 |
| Moneyline | Flyers | -106 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | +110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Penguins vs. Flyers player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Flyers?
According to our model, Porter Martone is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Flyers.
Our projections give Martone a 36.6% chance of scoring a goal at Xfinity Mobile Arena, while the star is a 7.7% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 32.0% |
| Rickard Rakell | 31.4% |
| Sidney Crosby | 27.5% |
| Anthony Mantha | 26.1% |
| Egor Chinakhov | 23.9% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Porter Martone | 36.6% |
| Tyson Foerster | 26.7% |
| Matvei Michkov | 26.3% |
| Owen Tippett | 26.2% |
| Travis Konecny | 25.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 6.0% |
| Rickard Rakell | 5.7% |
| Sidney Crosby | 4.8% |
| Anthony Mantha | 4.4% |
| Egor Chinakhov | 4.3% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Porter Martone | 7.7% |
| Tyson Foerster | 5.1% |
| Matvei Michkov | 5.1% |
| Owen Tippett | 4.9% |
| Travis Konecny | 4.5% |
Penguins vs. Flyers Game 3 updates and essential details
Wednesday's Game 3 between the Flyers and Penguins in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the NHL to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Penguins and Flyers, reached the NHL Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round of the NHL Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Flyers, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Wednesday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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