Penguins vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [4/2/2026]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Penguins vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Penguins and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 60% chance of defeating the Penguins.

According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Penguins vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Penguins	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+154)
Moneyline	+140	-162
Total	o6.5 (-115)	u6.5 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Penguins vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning -1.5	+154
Moneyline	Penguins	+140
Total	Under 6.5	+100

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Penguins vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 43.2% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Rickard Rakell	31.8%
Bryan Rust	30.7%
Yegor Chinakhov	25.9%
Anthony Mantha	25.4%
Sidney Crosby	24.0%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	43.2%
Brayden Point	41.8%
Nikita Kucherov	41.3%
Anthony Cirelli	26.4%
Gage Goncalves	19.4%

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Bryan Rust	6.1%
Rickard Rakell	5.5%
Anthony Mantha	4.4%
Yegor Chinakhov	4.3%
Sidney Crosby	4.1%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.0%
Nikita Kucherov	8.5%
Brayden Point	8.5%
Anthony Cirelli	4.4%
Gage Goncalves	3.1%

Penguins vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Lightning and Penguins at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Thursday, April 2, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.

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