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Rafael Jodar vs. Alex de Minaur prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Jodar vs de Minaur predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Rafael Jodar will take on Alex de Minaur in the round of 64 at the ATP Madrid event on Friday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Alex de Minaur as the most likely winner of the Jodar vs. de Minaur match.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Jodar vs. de Minaur prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's Jodar-de Minaur men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives de Minaur a 52% chance of winning against Jodar at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, de Minaur has a 51% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Jodar (+0.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Rafael Jodar vs. Alex de Minaur odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jodar | de Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +112 | -111 |
| First Set | +100 | -125 |
| Game Spread | +0.5 (-110) | -0.5 (-145) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-112) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jodar vs. de Minaur picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jodar | +112 |
| First Set | de Minaur | -118 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Rafael Jodar to win.
Although Jodar is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Jodar vs. de Minaur updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Rafael Jodar and Alex de Minaur is scheduled to begin on Friday at 2:00 PM ET.
- Who: Rafael Jodar vs. Alex de Minaur
- Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
- Approx. Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Rafael Jodar at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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