Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta prediction, odds, picks for French Open 2026

Rafael Jodar will take on Pablo Carreno Busta in the fourth round of the French Open Men's Singles 2026 on Sunday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Rafael Jodar as the most likely winner of the Jodar vs. Carreno Busta match.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Jodar vs. Carreno Busta prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Jodar-Carreno Busta men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Jodar a 78% chance of winning against Carreno Busta in the French Open 2026.

Additionally, Jodar has a 71% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Carreno Busta (+6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 35.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Jodar	Carreno Busta
Moneyline	-420	+350
First Set	-278	+220
Game Spread	-6.5 (+100)	+6.5 (-132)
Total Games	o35.5 (-115)	u35.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Jodar vs. Carreno Busta picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Carreno Busta	+350
First Set	Carreno Busta	-112

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Pablo Carreno Busta to win.

Although Carreno Busta is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Jodar vs. Carreno Busta updates and essential details

The French Open 2026 match between Rafael Jodar and Pablo Carreno Busta is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 7:20 AM ET.

• Who: Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
• Date: Sunday, May 31, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:20 AM ET/4:20AM PT
• Tournament: French Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Rafael Jodar, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at the French Open 2026.

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