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Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Bautista Agut vs Tirante predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Roberto Bautista Agut will square off with Thiago Agustin Tirante in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Wednesday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Thiago Tirante as the most likely winner of the Bautista Agut vs. Tirante match.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Bautista Agut vs. Tirante prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Bautista Agut-Tirante men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Tirante a 58% chance of winning against Bautista Agut at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Tirante has a 55% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Bautista Agut (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bautista Agut | Tirante |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +162 | -192 |
| First Set | +137 | -175 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-104) | -2.5 (-130) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-120) | u22.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bautista Agut vs. Tirante picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bautista Agut | +162 |
| First Set | Tirante | -120 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bautista Agut vs. Tirante updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Thiago Agustin Tirante is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 8:40 AM ET.
- Who: Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Approx. Time: 8:40 AM ET/5:40AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Thiago Tirante, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Roberto Bautista Agut at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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