Sharks vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [1/20/2026]

The Tampa Bay Lightning and San Jose Sharks are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Tuesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Sharks vs. Lightning game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Sharks vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL game between the Sharks and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 71% chance of beating the Sharks.

According to our model, the Sharks (+1.5) have a 51% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under.

Sharks vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sharks	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (+100)	-1.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+240	-298
Total	o6.5 (-110)	u6.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sharks vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Sharks +1.5	+100
Moneyline	Sharks	+240
Total	Under 6.5	-110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sharks +1.5 at the spread.

Sharks vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Sharks vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sharks vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 43.6% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Macklin Celebrini	31.9%
Pavol Regenda	29.0%
Will Smith	27.0%
Tyler Toffoli	23.9%
William Eklund	19.4%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	43.6%
Brandon Hagel	42.8%
Nikita Kucherov	42.2%
Anthony Cirelli	24.4%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	24.0%

First goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

Player	First Goal Probability
Macklin Celebrini	6.8%
Pavol Regenda	5.7%
Will Smith	5.1%
Tyler Toffoli	4.0%
William Eklund	3.3%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Brandon Hagel	8.9%
Jake Guentzel	8.5%
Nikita Kucherov	8.3%
Anthony Cirelli	4.4%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	4.3%

Sharks vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's action between the Lightning and Sharks at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: San Jose Sharks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Sharks on Tuesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Sharks vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.