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Kraken vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Seattle Kraken vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
NHL action continues on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET as the Seattle Kraken face off with the favored Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Kraken vs. Lightning game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Kraken vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Kraken and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 68% chance of defeating the Kraken.
According to our model, the Kraken (+1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under.
Kraken vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Kraken | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (+100) | -1.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +245 | -290 |
| Total | o6.5 (+105) | u6.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Kraken vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Kraken +1.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Kraken | +245 |
| Total | Over 6.5 | +105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Kraken +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Kraken vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Kraken vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Kraken vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Point a 41.6% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Seattle Kraken
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bobby McMann | 29.9% |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 22.4% |
| Matty Beniers | 22.3% |
| Shane Wright | 20.6% |
| Jordan Eberle | 19.9% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 41.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 40.2% |
| Jake Guentzel | 39.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.0% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 25.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Seattle Kraken
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bobby McMann | 6.0% |
| Matty Beniers | 4.0% |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 4.0% |
| Shane Wright | 3.4% |
| Jordan Eberle | 3.3% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 8.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.2% |
| Jake Guentzel | 8.0% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.2% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.0% |
Kraken vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Lightning and Kraken at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Kraken on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Kraken vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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