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Mariners vs. Astros prediction: Seattle favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros predictions for MLB Monday.
The Houston Astros will square off with the Seattle Mariners in MLB action at Daikin Park on Monday, beginning at 8:10 PM ET.
Peter Lambert (2-2, 2.42 ERA) will start for the Astros, while the Mariners have opted for George Kirby (4-2, 2.94 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Mariners as the most likely winner of the Mariners vs. Astros game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mariners vs. Astros prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Mariners and Astros, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mariners a 55% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Mariners vs. Astros odds [5/11/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mariners | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+125) | +1.5 (-137) |
| Moneyline | -140 | +124 |
| Total | o9 (+100) | u9 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mariners vs. Astros picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Astros +1.5 | -137 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +124 |
| Total | Over 9 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mariners vs. Astros game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Mariners at Daikin Park is scheduled to start at 8:10 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10PM PT
- Venue: Daikin Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mariners, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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