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Simona Waltert vs. Jelena Ostapenko prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Waltert vs Ostapenko predictions for WTA Madrid Open.
Simona Waltert and Jelena Ostapenko will meet in the round of 64 of the WTA Madrid Open event on Friday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Jelena Ostapenko as the most likely winner of the Waltert vs. Ostapenko match.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Waltert vs. Ostapenko prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Waltert-Ostapenko women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Ostapenko a 56% chance of defeating Waltert at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Ostapenko has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Ostapenko (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Simona Waltert vs. Jelena Ostapenko odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Waltert | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +137 | -146 |
| First Set | +110 | -139 |
| Game Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-122) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-110) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Waltert vs. Ostapenko picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Waltert | +137 |
| First Set | Ostapenko | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Simona Waltert to win.
Although Waltert is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Waltert vs. Ostapenko updates and essential details
The WTA Madrid Open match between Simona Waltert and Jelena Ostapenko is scheduled to start on Friday at 7:20 AM ET.
- Who: Simona Waltert vs. Jelena Ostapenko
- Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:20 AM ET/4:20AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Madrid, Spain Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Jelena Ostapenko, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Simona Waltert at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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