Spain vs. Belgium World Cup odds today: Soccer betting cheat sheet [July 10]

After more than four weeks of thrilling matches, the soccer World Cup 2026 has reached the Quarterfinals stage. Today, we have another sudden death matchup on the World Cup schedule, and this betting odds preview is designed to help you navigate Friday's matches using Dimers' data-driven World Cup predictions on July 10.

Today's Quarterfinals matchup features Spain vs. Belgium at 3pm from California's SoFi Stadium.

Thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook, we've broken down Friday's Quarterfinal matchup below in our World Cup betting preview, with everything you need to know about the teams, the players, the probabilities, the most likely score lines, as well as the sharpest player props for Friday's single World Cup fixture.

Today's World Cup 2026 odds - July 10

Dimers' World Cup 2026 odds refer to the Quarterfinals forecasts and statistical projections made by our team of data scientists regarding the outcomes of not only this match on Friday, July 10, but also the ultimate winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. These predictions for the 2026 World Cup are generated by highly sophisticated machine learning models that analyze historical odds, data sets, player-specific performance metrics, and team-level compositions that delivered some outstanding betting results.

Spain vs. Belgium odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 10, 3pm (ET)

The elite Quarterfinals stage fires up with its second single-elimination blockbuster. This high-stakes matchup brings together two storied European programs coming off vastly different, yet highly successful, results in the previous round.

Spain enters the final eight having displayed immense defensive focus in the Round of 16, relying on their clinical control to edge past a dangerous Portugal squad in a tight 1-0 victory. Belgium, by contrast, punched their ticket to the Quarterfinals in thunderous fashion, absolutely thrashing the tournament hosts, the United States, in an explosive 4-1 victory. The prize waiting at the finish line is monumental: the winner of this heavyweight battle will progress to the Semifinals to face France, who successfully knocked out Morocco on Thursday.

The predictive metrics award La Roja a definitive advantage to control the pitch, though Belgium's explosive attacking display keeps the goal markets beautifully balanced. Here is the direct look at the moneyline percentages, total goals expectations, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market favors a Spain victory within regulation time, leaving the Red Devils with a combined 39.9% statistical window to force extra time or orchestrate a knockout surprise:

• Spain to win: 60.0%
• Draw: 22.4%
• Belgium to win: 17.5%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting Spain's elite possession game balanced against Belgium's high-flying attacking display in their previous match, the model splits the goal line almost down the middle, leaning slightly toward the over:

• Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%
• Under 2.5 goals: 48.9%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution highlights Spain's defensive stability as the primary factor, with single-goal decisions or low-scoring clean sheets leading individual mathematical expectations:

• Spain 1-0 Belgium: 12.1%
• Spain 2-0 Belgium: 11.2%
• Spain 1-1 Draw: 10.7%
• Spain 2-1 Belgium: 9.8%
• Spain 3-0 Belgium: 6.8%

Summary: Spain enters this marquee Quarterfinal clash as a solid 60.0% favorite. Because single-elimination matchups at this deep stage of the tournament can easily turn into tactical chess matches, backing a straight side can be elevated by combination markets. Given the prominent 12.1% and 11.2% probabilities assigned to the 1-0 and 2-0 Spanish victories, pairing a Spain win with an alt line of Under 3.5 total match goals or backing Spain to advance offers a highly supported, data-backed angle.