May 30, 2026
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Read Article Cardinals vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Friday.
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will lock horns in MLB action at Great American Ball Park on Friday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
The Reds will send Chris Paddack (0-5, 7.06 ERA) to the mound, while the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Leahy (5-3, 3.94 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Reds a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Cardinals.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Cardinals vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cardinals vs. Reds prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Reds a 54% chance of beating the Cardinals.
According to our model, the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 51% chance of staying under.
Cardinals vs. Reds odds [5/22/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cardinals | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +101 | -118 |
| Total | o9.5 (-105) | u9.5 (-111) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Reds | -118 |
| Total | Under 9.5 | -111 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cardinals vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB game between the Reds and Cardinals at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Reds, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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