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Cardinals vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres predictions for MLB Sunday.
MLB action continues on Sunday at 4:10 PM ET as the St. Louis Cardinals square off with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
Walker Buehler (2-2, 5.64 ERA) will be on the bump for the Padres, while the Cardinals have opted for Kyle Leahy (4-3, 4.93 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Cardinals.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Cardinals vs. Padres matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cardinals vs. Padres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Padres a 54% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 54% chance of going over.
Cardinals vs. Padres odds [5/10/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cardinals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-184) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | +114 | -132 |
| Total | o8 (-118) | u8 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Padres picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Padres -1.5 | +165 |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | +114 |
| Total | Over 8 | -118 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cardinals vs. Padres game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Padres and Cardinals at Petco Park is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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