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Super Bowl 60 odds vs. predictions: What our model says after Week 3
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Reviewed by Ryan Leaver
Dimers' probabilities reveal the true contenders—and the undervalued teams bettors should be watching.
Three weeks into the NFL season, the Super Bowl 60 race already looks different than it did in August. Preseason darlings have stumbled, new contenders have emerged, and the gap between true challengers and the rest is widening fast.
Oddsmakers opened the year with Baltimore, Buffalo, and Philadelphia tied at +700, with Kansas City close behind. But only one of those teams has separated as the most likely champion, according to Dimers' NFL futures model.
So who's rising, who's falling, and where does the real betting value lie ahead of Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, February 8, 2026.
Buffalo is Dimers' current Super Bowl 60 favorite at 15.8% probability, but the betting market has already stripped away much of the value from their shortened +450 odds. The same is true for the Ravens. The real story is found further down, where the numbers and prices differ more.
No team pops more than Cincinnati. Despite just a 3.0% chance in Dimers' simulations, their long price of +18000 implies only a 0.55% chance—creating the biggest gap between projections and odds. Still, bettors should tread carefully with Cincinnati. Joe Burrow remains sidelined, leaving Jake Browning under center. Browning has been serviceable, but the gap between a backup and a quarterback of Burrow's caliber is significant.
San Francisco and Philadelphia also show value, even as contenders. The 49ers' 6.3% probability outpaces their implied 4.8% from +2000 odds, while the Eagles carry a similar edge (13.3% vs. 11.8%) at +750. Both offer bettors a fairer shake than Buffalo at the top.
Elsewhere, the Texans (1.4% probability, +10000) and Lions (9.5%, +1000) sneak in with smaller but still positive differences—enough to suggest those tickets are priced more generously than their rivals in the same tier.
In short, while the Bills look like the team to beat, the smarter money may be with the 49ers and Eagles — and the Bengals remain a risky long shot hinging on Burrow's return.
Super Bowl 60 odds after Week 3
| Team | Probability | Odds | Implied Prob. | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 15.8% | +450 | 18.2% | -2.4% |
| Eagles | 13.3% | +750 | 11.8% | 1.5% |
| Ravens | 13.1% | +600 | 14.3% | -1.2% |
| Lions | 9.5% | +1000 | 9.1% | 0.4% |
| Chiefs | 6.9% | +1400 | 6.7% | 0.2% |
| 49ers | 6.3% | +2000 | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Packers | 4.9% | +750 | 11.8% | -6.9% |
| Chargers | 4.5% | +1500 | 6.3% | -1.8% |
| Buccaneers | 3.9% | +2200 | 4.3% | -0.4% |
| Rams | 3.7% | +2000 | 4.8% | -1.1% |
| Bengals | 3.0% | +18000 | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| Commanders | 2.7% | +2200 | 4.3% | -1.6% |
| Vikings | 2.1% | +4000 | 2.4% | -0.3% |
| Seahawks | 1.5% | +6600 | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Texans | 1.4% | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Broncos | 1.4% | +4000 | 2.4% | -1.0% |
| Colts | 1.4% | +4000 | 2.4% | -1.0% |
| Cardinals | 1.0% | +7500 | 1.3% | -0.3% |
| Jaguars | 0.7% | +7000 | 1.4% | -0.7% |
| Falcons | 0.5% | +12500 | 0.8% | -0.3% |
| Steelers | 0.4% | +8000 | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| Patriots | 0.4% | +12500 | 0.8% | -0.4% |
| Bears | 0.4% | +15000 | 0.7% | -0.3% |
| Raiders | 0.3% | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Cowboys | 0.3% | +18000 | 0.6% | -0.3% |
| Dolphins | 0.2% | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Panthers | 0.1% | +50000 | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Saints | 0.0% | +100000 | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Titans | 0.0% | +50000 | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Browns | 0.0% | +50000 | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Giants | 0.0% | +50000 | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| Jets | 0.0% | +50000 | 0.2% | -0.2% |
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Ryan Leaver through our fact-checking process.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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