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Lightning vs. Flames prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [3/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Calgary Flames and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Saddledome on Sunday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Flames game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Flames prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Flames 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 61% chance of defeating the Flames.
According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Flames odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-160) |
| Moneyline | -175 | +146 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Flames picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Flames +1.5 | -160 |
| Moneyline | Flames | +146 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Flames player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Flames?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Flames.
Our projections give Point a 38.5% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Saddledome, while the star is an 8.1% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 38.5% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 38.4% |
| Jake Guentzel | 35.4% |
| Brandon Hagel | 28.9% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 25.2% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich | 24.6% |
| Victor Olofsson | 23.6% |
| Morgan Frost | 23.6% |
| Matthew Coronato | 22.3% |
| Joel Farabee | 20.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 8.1% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.6% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 4.8% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich | 4.5% |
| Morgan Frost | 4.3% |
| Matthew Coronato | 4.1% |
| Victor Olofsson | 3.8% |
| Joel Farabee | 3.6% |
Lightning vs. Flames game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Flames and Lightning at Scotiabank Saddledome is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Calgary Flames
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Flames insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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