...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Lightning vs. Stars prediction: Tampa Bay favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [1/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning will lock horns in the NHL at American Airlines Center on Sunday, starting at 2:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Stars.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's Lightning vs. Stars matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Stars prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL game between the Lightning and Stars 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 52% chance of beating the Stars.
According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Lightning vs. Stars odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+210) | +1.5 (-235) |
| Moneyline | -115 | +100 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Stars picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars +1.5 | -235 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -115 |
| Total | Over 6 | -105 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Stars +1.5 at the spread.
Lightning vs. Stars player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Stars?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Stars.
Our projections give Guentzel a 36.8% chance of scoring a goal at American Airlines Center, while the star is a 7.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 36.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 36.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 36.1% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 20.6% |
| Nick Paul | 20.0% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 35.7% |
| Jason Robertson | 35.6% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 34.0% |
| Roope Hintz | 28.0% |
| Matt Duchene | 21.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 7.4% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.2% |
| Nick Paul | 3.8% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3.5% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 7.1% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 7.0% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 6.8% |
| Roope Hintz | 5.1% |
| Matt Duchene | 3.6% |
Lightning vs. Stars game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Stars and Lightning at American Airlines Center is scheduled to start at 2:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars
- Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
- Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00AM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Stars on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Stars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure