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Lightning vs. Oilers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [3/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Edmonton Oilers will face the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Rogers Place on Saturday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Oilers.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's Lightning vs. Oilers matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Oilers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Oilers 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 54% chance of defeating the Oilers.
According to our model, the Oilers (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Oilers odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+172) | +1.5 (-205) |
| Moneyline | -135 | +115 |
| Total | o6.5 (-134) | u6.5 (+120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Oilers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Oilers +1.5 | -205 |
| Moneyline | Oilers | +115 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +120 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Oilers player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Oilers?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Oilers.
Our projections give Point a 40.5% chance of scoring a goal at Rogers Place, while the star is a 7.7% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 40.5% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 38.5% |
| Jake Guentzel | 34.8% |
| Brandon Hagel | 29.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 23.2% |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 40.0% |
| Zach Hyman | 39.7% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 24.8% |
| Evan Bouchard | 23.6% |
| Jack Roslovic | 21.9% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 7.7% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.7% |
| Jake Guentzel | 6.3% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.6% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.6% |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Zach Hyman | 7.7% |
| Connor McDavid | 7.4% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 4.5% |
| Jack Roslovic | 3.8% |
| Evan Bouchard | 3.8% |
Lightning vs. Oilers game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between the Oilers and Lightning at Rogers Place is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Edmonton Oilers
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Place
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Oilers on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Oilers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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